During the July-September quarter of the current fiscal year 2023-24, the Indian economy exhibited robust growth, registering a 7.6% expansion, maintaining its position as the fastest-growing major economy.
The GDP growth for the preceding April-June quarter was 7.8%. The Real GDP, measured at Constant (2011-12) Prices in Q2 2023-24, is projected to reach Rs 41.74 lakh crore, reflecting a notable increase from Rs 38.78 lakh crore in Q2 2022-23, with a growth rate of 7.6%, up from 6.2% in the same quarter of the previous year, as reported by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation.
Contrary to the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) earlier forecast, which anticipated a real GDP growth of 6.5% for 2023-24 with Q2 at 6.5%, Q3 at 6.0%, and Q4 at 5.7%, the actual performance surpassed these expectations. The central bank's primary concern, highlighted during its last monetary policy meeting, centered on the escalating inflation and its potential risks to the growth outlook.
A recent survey by the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) conducted in September 2023 revealed that the Indian economy is anticipated to achieve a growth rate of 6.3% in the fiscal year 2023-24. The survey incorporated responses from leading economists representing various sectors, including industry, banking, and financial services, with minimum and maximum growth estimates of 6% and 6.6%, respectively.
In October, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its GDP growth forecast for India in 2023-24 to 6.3%, marking its second upward revision since the April report. The IMF attributed this positive adjustment to stronger-than-expected consumption during the April-June period. The growth forecast had risen progressively from 5.9% in April to 6.1% in July, ultimately reaching 6.3%, aligning closely with the 6.5% prediction by Indian authorities. The IMF maintained India's GDP growth projection for 2024-25 at 6.3%.
Simultaneously, the Index of Eight Core Industries (ICI) demonstrated a substantial increase of 12.1% (provisional) in October 2023 compared to the corresponding month in 2022. Notably, all eight core industries, including Cement, Coal, Crude Oil, Electricity, Fertilizers, Natural Gas, Refinery Products, and Steel, witnessed positive growth in production during October 2023, according to an official release from the Union Ministry of Commerce and Industry.